Report: 3.24 million plug-in EVs to be sold by 2015

September 1, 2010 7:48 AM PDT

by Candace Lombardi

Automakers will sell a total of 3.24 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles worldwide between 2010 and 2015, according to a report released Wednesday.

It will be Chinese and U.S. drivers buying most of these vehicles, Pike Research says in its report, "Plug-in Electric Vehicles." Cars in these categories include the plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, the battery electric Ford Focus, and a number of vehicles from China's BYD Auto.

Over the five-year period, Chinese consumers are expected to purchase about 888,000 plug-in and battery electric vehicles combined, accounting for 27 percent of worldwide sales, while U.S. consumers are expected to purchase about 841,000 such vehicles, or 26 percent.

Plug-in cars and light-duty trucks are expected to gain in popularity due to their "improved fuel economy, lower emissions, and a quieter ride than comparable traditionally powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles," according to Pike Research.

However, U.S. consumers are still skittish about the initial cost of the vehicles despite the promise of long-term fuel savings. They also remain worried that the number of miles between charges a plug-in all-electric vehicle can manage--the vehicle range,--may not be enough to meet their needs.

Manufacturers are well aware of consumers' concerns over range and cost, which is why their smaller models will be the first to carry the new technology.

"Electric vehicles will follow the lead of hybrids and will be launched in the small car segment for consumer markets initially, with the small SUV segment close behind. Because of their low weight and good aerodynamics, smaller vehicles are far more efficient to better extend the electrically powered driving range, and the smaller vehicle segments also allow the use of a smaller, less expensive battery," Dave Hurst, senior analyst at Pike Research, said in a statement.

Candace Lombardi, a freelance journalist based in the Boston area, focuses on the evolution of green and otherwise cutting-edge technologies, from robots to cars to scientific innovation. She is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not a current employee of CNET. E-mail Candace.
Topics: In the home, Transportation, Batteries and energy storage

Tags: PHEVs,EVs,research reports,BEVs,hybrids

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Add a Comment (Log in or register) (7 Comments) prev next by globaltechfirm

September 1, 2010 10:26 AM PDT
I don't understand why everyone is so confused about alternative fuels.. apparently we had it right from the get go.. Hemp seed oil was used in the early 1900's to fuel cars, but that would cause our US government a mess now wouldn't it.. i encourage you whom are really interested to research all of the wonderful uses of hemp, you will soon realize what the real issue is.. Hemp vs BIG oil company's & pharmaceuticals/healthcare(donated the largest amount of money to the Obama campaign) .. it will help make sense of our new healthcare reform; if you continue to dig deeper into this topic. I have deeply researched this topic for many years.
Like this Reply to this comment by omnimoeish September 1, 2010 10:27 AM PDT
Wow, I am the biggest plug in vehicle proponent in the world, but even I think that's a little optimistic. I heard a recent report that 40% of US adults wanted to test drive an EV, which is a ton, like probably close to 100 million people, but the problem is the auto makers are so afraid that people are as afraid to move on from oil as they are, they are producing them in small token amounts. Like they're only making 10,000 Volts in all of 2010 and 2011 and 25,000 in 2012 or something, and GM is leading the industry in plug ins. Toyota won't even have a plug in until at least 2012, maybe later. Nissan is trying to crank up production, but there's so many supply bottlenecks too as EV components are not commoditized yet.

Like this Reply to this comment by j-allen September 1, 2010 11:44 AM PDT
Electric vehicles are only as green as the power source from which they are charged. In most of the US, "electric" cars are actually coal-fired steam cars with the boiler and steam engine located at the power station. It is true that the overall efficiency from fuel to wheels can be better than with an onboard internal combustion engine, but a truly "green" electric vehicle would be charged from renewable sources.

About 20 years ago I designed a solar photovoltaic charging station for an electric car that a friend used to commute to work and back. It was about 10 miles each way so he did quite well with conventional lead-acid batteries and a DC motor. With today's improved systems one could do much better.

Like this Reply to this comment by WineMaker5000 September 1, 2010 12:23 PM PDT
Coal to wheels have a higher overall efficiency than oil to wheels.
Coal requires simple mining and transport to the coal plants and electricity has distribution network. Compared to heavily subsidized oil count the cost of govt subsidies, exploration, drilling, pumping, transporting, refining, wholesale distribution then to retail distribution and finally to the tank and then to the wheels.

But i agree with you that with EV we can change the source to use renewables or sustainable sources and that option is a big plus. We dont change the cars only change the power source.
Like this 1 person likes this comment
by parke0123 September 1, 2010 1:53 PM PDT

Agreed! Don't put dirty electricity into a clean car! TimberRock Energy Solutions has recently launched a solar-based EV charging solution able provide 100% of the projected annual energy use of the Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf. www,timberrockes.com
Like this by jamesthurber September 1, 2010 7:45 PM PDT
A reality check:

If each new EV displaces 600 gallons of gasoline per year (very optimistically assuming 12,000 miles per vehicle per year at 20 miles per gallon displaced), then placing 841,000 EV's on the road in the US by 2015 equates to displaced gasoline of 504 million gallons per year. This is about 0.36% of current annual gasoline consumption. This does not consider the energy that is used to charge the EV's.

The bottom line:

EV's cannot significantly impact fossil fuel consumption without dramatic improvements in battery technology. Subsidizing the purchase or manufacture of EV's without these improvements is a waste of money.

Like this Reply to this comment by YogitheK9 September 1, 2010 10:03 PM PDT
The Projected Reports said DSL would be covering 90 % of the USA in 2009 too.
Right now DSL only covers 36% of USA & Wireless Broadband covers 90% of the USA!.

Who is making your projections? The same people who made them for the phone companies back in the year 2000?

EV's have a battery problem & even Lithium batteries in a Tesla EV cost 8K to replace after only 3 yrs use. That is more money then using Gasoline & Oil for the vehicle! Someone needs to rethink your projections bet you only 1 M EVs will be in use in 2015 . The rest will be Hybrids and we will get rid of Ethanol from corn products to ethanol from Sugar cane production. Like Brazil does.. Brazil also has E-85 & E-100 Vehicles which require no gasoline whatsoever.

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20015278-54.html?tag=mncol;posts#ixzz0yOn6IO7Z