May 19, 2010 11:19 AM PDT
by Candace Lombardi
Rooftop solar installation from SunPower, one of the solar manufacturers that has survived the market shift
(Credit: SunPower)
Solar has found its cost-per-watt sweet spot, according to Pike Research.
The research analyst found that in 2008 a lack of readily available credit and the expensive cost-per-watt of solar compared to other energy sources created a glut of solar panels on the market. This glut, along with lowered polysilicon costs which enabled crystalline silicon solar cells to be made for less money, resulted in overall lower prices for solar cells.
The consequence of all this is exactly what one might expect. There are right now approximately 190 solar cell and module manufacturers in existence, according to the Pike Research report "The New Solar Market" released Wednesday. The research analyst predicts lower prices and increased competition will force manufacturers to consolidate with other companies or even go out of business altogether. Pike was not so bold, however, to make a prediction as to exactly how many companies might be left in 2011.
On the consumer end, credit availability coming back and the price decrease for solar installations spurred by the glut led to a market shift that increased demand toward the end of 2008 and in 2009. This trend will continue and lead to an increased interest and worldwide demand of about 43 percent growth for 2010 compared to 2009. It's about the equivalent of 10.1 gigawatts (GW) worth of solar equipment, according to Pike Research.
Pike also said the appeal of "one-stop shopping" will contribute to the growth.
As Green Tech has been reporting, there's a trend of solar manufacturers, developers, and installation companies joining forces to offer turnkey solar solutions for utilities, municipalities, and even private companies looking to self-supply. The idea of turn-key solar seems to have originated in thermal solar, but manufacturers of solar and concentrated solar systems have also formed partnerships to take care of the complicated headaches of planning, permitting, and developing medium- to large-scale solar farms.
But this growth will no longer be driven by the usual leader. Spain has been at the forefront of solar installation, for the obvious sunny reason one would expect, for quite some time. It's about to be built-out, according to Pike Research.
The Spanish market is almost completely saturated in terms of new growth, and others will be picking up the solar charge. China, Germany, Italy, and the United States are going to be the next leaders in solar and will drive the worldwide market to a demand of about 19 gigawatts worth of solar installations for 2013, Pike Research predicts.
Showing posts with label Pike Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pike Research. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Billions to be spent on smart-grid cybersecurity
February 4, 2010 10:05 AM PST
by Lance Whitney
Utility companies around the world will spend $21 billion by 2015 to improve cybersecurity for the world's electrical smart grid, according to a report released Thursday by Pike Research.
As the industry has increasingly built up smart grids to better control and regulate electrical power, the threat of cyberattacks has become a greater concern. Dangers ranging from terrorist attacks to hackers to accidents to natural disasters could cause substantial damage.
To better safeguard the grid, utilities will spend a total of $21 billion over the next five years. The business segment that services this market will likely see revenue grow to $3.7 billion annually by 2015, compared with $1.2 billion last year, according to the report.
"No utility wants to be the weak link in the chain," said Pike Research managing director Clint Wheelock in a statement. "The concern over grid vulnerability is driving utility technologists to work closely with systems integrators, infrastructure suppliers, and standards bodies to develop a robust framework for smart-grid cybersecurity across multiple domains."
Concerns have been raised for years about the vulnerability of electrical power facilities and systems. As utilities have modernized and moved their equipment and services to the smart grid, those concerns have intensified. Last year, cybersecurity for the smart grid hit the headlines as news surfaced that different groups had tried to hack past the security of the U.S. power grid.
According to an earlier Pike report, it is estimated that $200 billion will be invested overall in the smart grid by 2015.
But challenges remain. To improve communications, utilities have been deploying smart meters that use two-way networks, making them a more vulnerable target for hackers. Networks have also become more integrated, again increasing their vulnerability to a cyberattack.
With many companies involved in the smart grid, there's also a lack of interoperable standards for cybersecurity, noted Pike. To strengthen security, utilities and other players will need end-to-end security technologies that can work across different geographic areas. In response, the U.S. government has called upon the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop interoperable standards for smart-grid companies to adopt.
Over the next five years, security spending will probably be heaviest on equipment protection and management. But money will also need to be invested in better securing distribution automation and smart meters
by Lance Whitney
Utility companies around the world will spend $21 billion by 2015 to improve cybersecurity for the world's electrical smart grid, according to a report released Thursday by Pike Research.
As the industry has increasingly built up smart grids to better control and regulate electrical power, the threat of cyberattacks has become a greater concern. Dangers ranging from terrorist attacks to hackers to accidents to natural disasters could cause substantial damage.
To better safeguard the grid, utilities will spend a total of $21 billion over the next five years. The business segment that services this market will likely see revenue grow to $3.7 billion annually by 2015, compared with $1.2 billion last year, according to the report.
"No utility wants to be the weak link in the chain," said Pike Research managing director Clint Wheelock in a statement. "The concern over grid vulnerability is driving utility technologists to work closely with systems integrators, infrastructure suppliers, and standards bodies to develop a robust framework for smart-grid cybersecurity across multiple domains."
Concerns have been raised for years about the vulnerability of electrical power facilities and systems. As utilities have modernized and moved their equipment and services to the smart grid, those concerns have intensified. Last year, cybersecurity for the smart grid hit the headlines as news surfaced that different groups had tried to hack past the security of the U.S. power grid.
According to an earlier Pike report, it is estimated that $200 billion will be invested overall in the smart grid by 2015.
But challenges remain. To improve communications, utilities have been deploying smart meters that use two-way networks, making them a more vulnerable target for hackers. Networks have also become more integrated, again increasing their vulnerability to a cyberattack.
With many companies involved in the smart grid, there's also a lack of interoperable standards for cybersecurity, noted Pike. To strengthen security, utilities and other players will need end-to-end security technologies that can work across different geographic areas. In response, the U.S. government has called upon the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop interoperable standards for smart-grid companies to adopt.
Over the next five years, security spending will probably be heaviest on equipment protection and management. But money will also need to be invested in better securing distribution automation and smart meters
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Study: The road ahead for electric cars
December 17, 2009 8:21 AM PST
Study: The road ahead for electric cars
by Candace Lombardi
While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit: Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research
Study: The road ahead for electric cars
by Candace Lombardi
While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit: Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research
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